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10-years-to-save-the-climate is based on flawed forecasting and distracts from real solutions

10-years-to-save-the-climate is based on flawed forecasting and distracts from real solutions

overstated because it’s largely based on unreliable models, f

THUNDER BAY, ONTARIO ~~~~~  January 15, 2022  (LSNews)  —The increasingly accepted idea that the world has 10-years to avoid catastrophic climate change is overstated because it’s largely based on unreliable models, finds a new essay released today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, nonpartisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“Despite global greenhouse gas emissions increasing, we’re still the same 10 or so years away from climate catastrophe that we were some twenty years ago when these forecasts first started appearing,” said Kenneth P. Green, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of Is Climate Catastrophe Really 10 Years Away?

The study explains there is considerable, actual real-world data for the last twenty years that allows for comparisons between what was expected (i.e. forecasted) versus what actually happened. In case after case, the main models being used to forecast the future climate have proven inaccurate and unreliable. The study recognizes that climate models have improved but are still inaccurate, which raises serious concerns about their use.

“Often times people, particularly advocates and the media treat these forward estimates (i.e. forecasts) as if they’re absolutely certain to occur,” explained Green.

The study goes on to explain that the over-reaction to and over-reliance on these flawed models results in policy recommendations and decisions that miss more effective solutions, particularly those related to adaptation to a changing climate. For instance, assessing present day harms from climate change would lead to more spending on protecting coastal infrastructure in areas where sea levels are rising.

“Rather than obsess over dubious 10-year forecasts, incremental, adaptive measures are an alternative option that policy makers should consider in the face of repeated ‘10-year’ windows and failed greenhouse gas emission reduction policies.”

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Summary

  • The dominant narrative behind the promotion of aggressive climate change policies is that humanity is always about 10 years away from either catastrophic climate change, or some greenhouse gas emission “tipping point” at which such change will become inevitable.
  • These “10-years to disaster” scenarios, however, are based on speculative computer models driven primarily by conjecture and assumptions of future events, not merely extrapolations from climate trends, and/or greenhouse gas emission trends that has been observed.
  • Comparisons with empirically measured data regarding climate change and greenhouse gas concentrations reveals that the computer forecast models which drive the “10-year” narrative significantly over-predict human-caused warming of the Earth’s atmosphere.
  • Climate policies based on these 10-year narratives in the past have consistently failed at their stated objectives of either significantly reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, or forestalling expected climate change.
  • Longer term, incremental, adaptive control measures are an alternative option that policymakers should consider in the face of repeated “10-year” windows and failed greenhouse gas emission reduction policies.

Author:

Kenneth P. Green
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute


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    The Fraser Institute is an independent, non-partisan research and educational organization based in Canada. We have offices in Calgary, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver. Visit our Website 

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